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Super Bowl XLVIII Analysis

'The Duke' Super Bowl XLVIII Game Ball

Once again we find ourselves in late January, anticipating the last Pigskin Battle of the year. Super Bowl XLVIII (48 for those who can’t read Roman numerals) features the NFC Seattle Seahawks vs. the AFC Denver Broncos. Now, if you want to watch this game for the commercials — or even worse, the halftime show — and have as much interest in the game as you do in a trip to the local DMV, this article is not for you. The Puppy Bowl is on Animal Planet that morning. Perhaps you’d find that better suited to your tastes. However, if you always find yourself watching the big game but unable to keep up with your football-savvy friends, or better yet, are a true American and religiously follow the great NFL, then you’re in for a treat.

Defense

The Seattle Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL, hands down. Seattle leads the league in least points, passing yards, and total yards allowed, making them a truly remarkable defensive unit. You may have heard Richard Sherman (Seattle cornerback… the guy who covers the guy trying to catch the ball) in the news recently, notoriously claiming to be the best there is. I hate to break it to you, but he is the best, BY FAR. Though you may have been offended by his comments, facts don’t lie. Sherman leads the league in interceptions and least receptions allowed, the two categories that make a corner. In addition to superstar Sherman, the Seahawks have a pair of pro-bowler safeties (guys in the back), Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, giving Seattle an overall loaded secondary. It's worth mentioning that the rest of the Seattle defensive cast are certainly not your typical bums… you don’t get to number one in the league without a full team of stars.

In comparison, the Broncos’ defense leaves much to be desired. Denver ranks in the middle of the NFL herd of defensive stats, having only one clear star on D: cornerback Champ Bailey. And as the 15 season veteran is recently coming off an injury, Bailey cannot be depended on. Other than Champ, the Broncos have a so-so defense at best. They seem to have adopted the strategy that ‘it’s ok to let the other guys score some points, because we can just score more.’ This clearly contrasts with Seattle’s lockdown defense, and is the first of many factors that make for an interesting matchup this time around.

Seattle Seahawks CB #25 Richard Sherman

Offense

Next up is offense — and this time I’ll start with Denver. As I previously said, Denver seems to afford a run-of-the-mill defense because of their high-octane offense. The Broncos play the best offense in the NFL. Denver leads the league in most points scored, most passing yards, and most total yards. Sound familiar? It’s the powerhouse Broncos’ offense against the lockdown Seahawks’ defense — the best vs. the best. If that doesn’t raise your interest in this game, ye fairweather fans, I don’t know what will.

Denver Broncos QB #18 Peyton Manning

As for Seattle’s offense, much like the Denver defense, they’re about average in the NFL. And much like Denver’s defense can allow points because its offense can score more, Seattle doesn’t need to score many points because its defense can stop teams from scoring better than any other defense in the league.

The most interesting position in the offensive breakdown is quarterbacks (and if you’ve made it this far and don’t know that the quarterback throws the ball, I commend your endurance). Rather fittingly, Denver quarterback Peyton Manning and Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson have very different styles. While both have been undoubtedly great this year, Peyton has been undoubtedly better, putting up ridiculous numbers and breaking the record for most touchdown passes. Russell is a young quarterback in only his second season; Peyton’s a veteran, in his sixteenth season. Wilson can run, and likes to make things happen by moving around; Manning stands in the pocket and throws — nothing more, nothing less. Russell has never been to the Super Bowl; but this will be Peyton’s third time there. Sounds like Manning’s got this one, right? Before you jump on his bandwagon, consider this: Russell excels in the nasty cold, wind, and rain of Seattle; Peyton likes to play his game on a chessboard, with the elements controlled in a dome or temperate climate. This year, the Super Bowl is in an outdoor stadium in New Jersey, and it’s February — still on the Manning train?

Seahawks QB #3 Russell Wilson

While both quarterbacks have fair arguments, and Wilson should, at least, be able to hang with Manning, the Broncos’ wide receivers and tight ends (guys who catch the ball) clearly outrank those of the Seahawks. I can’t specifically name one Denver receiver who is the best in the league. That’s because they’re all among the best, and dilute the numbers amongst themselves. The top three receivers on Denver, all all-stars, are Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker. In addition, Denver tight end Julius Thomas shines as an offensive star. With Peyton Manning throwing to this incredible corps of receivers, the one question remains: can the all-star Seattle defenders stop them?

To be fair, I’ll comment on Seattle’s receivers, even though none of them come close to Denver’s. Golden Tate (slightly above average) and Doug Baldwin (solid, nothing special) lead Seattle’s WRs. Tight end Zach Miller? It’s tough to comment on him since they rarely use the guy except for blocking.

Manning and his receivers: Welker #83, Thomas #88, Decker #87

If I just swung you in favor of Denver, then take a step back, because I left something out — running backs (self-explanatory, they get the ball and run). Denver is certainly not lacking in this category, offensively or defensively. At the beginning of the season, Denver thought their RB Knowshon Moreno was burnt out, and brought in RB Montee Ball to phase him out. Nevertheless, Moreno surprised everyone when he emerged as a star running back, and has certainly proven that he’s a force to be reckoned with. As for the Broncos’ backup RB Ball… well, he’s only average; I suppose above average compared to other backup backs. Defensively, the Broncos are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, and there’s not much more to say. Seattle, however — well that’s a whole nother story. Seattle holds a superstar running back, Marshawn Lynch, who could prove to be a huge game changer in the Super Bowl. Lynch is incredible, definitely at the top of the league, and better than Moreno. And in an outdoor stadium up North in Winter, the run game could prove to be more valuable than the passing game. As for defense, Seattle ranks seventh in stopping the run… not too shabby.

Seattle Seahawks RB #24 Marshawn Lynch

That’s the rundown on the major phases of the game. Special teams? Denver’s kicker, Matt Prater, is exceptional; some say the best there is. Seattle’s kicker, Steven Hauschka, is above average, and can certainly get the job done. Coaching? The Broncos’ head coach John Fox plays conservatively, nothing out of the ordinary. However, Pete Carroll, coach of the Seahawks, is interesting — much more likely to take a risk.

Prediction

Obviously, it seems like Superbowl XLVIII is shaping up to be an unusually remarkable game, with rather well-matched teams. Clearly Seattle wins defensively, and Denver wins in passing. Seattle also has an advantage in rushing, but Denver holds a slight edge in special teams. One factor that will dramatically affect the game is the weather. Current reports forecast temperature somewhere in the 30s, with little chance of any precipitation. If it was going to be a blizzard or raining, I’d easily choose the Seahawks — a team that thrives in Seattle’s elements, is based defensively, and has a fantastic ground game. But since it should be clear, I’m giving this one to Denver. Peyton just has too many offensive weapons at his disposal, so much so that the Seahawks’ defense, no matter how good they are, cannot cover everyone. If Sherman covers Demaryius, Manning will throw to Welker or Decker; even if all the stars are covered, Manning will occasionally use guys like Caldwell or Tamme. In addition, Denver should be able to establish a pretty solid running game, perhaps exploiting the one kink in Seattle’s D. The Seahawks will definitely put up a fight, but Wilson and Lynch can keep pace with the Peyton and the Broncos’ receiving tank. I’m advising Eli to watch out, because his big bro is about to tie him in Super Bowl rings.

Metlife Stadium in NJ, site of Super Bowl XLVIII